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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. However, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still